This Remarkable Scoring Streak Fuels Aston Villa's Unlikely Title Charge

Just two months prior that the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or the reason for the side's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Sideline Explosion of Elation

This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. As the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?

It remains a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, even as the positive results have piled up.

Per the data, twice all season has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened in London, and once more when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

An Unstoppable Force

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.

  • Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
  • The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
  • The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.

Andrea Blair
Andrea Blair

A blockchain developer and educator with over 8 years of experience in fintech innovation.